When Donald Trump stepped onto the rostrum inside the House chamber nearly a year ago, his celebratory, confrontational remarks to Congress amounted to a defiant victory dance — dismissing Democrats, denigrating his enemies and declaring the dawn of a new American golden age to be defined by “big dreams and bold action.”
Just as Trump promised, things have changed.
But as he is set to deliver this year’s State of the Union, the changes Trump has wrought have left him in a far weaker position, with the political capital of his emphatic 2024 victory long since spent, his party increasingly anxious about the looming midterms andhis approval ratings near record lows.
“It’s an offensive speech, but the backdrop of it all is that they’ve been in a defensive posture for several weeks now,” said one former administration official, granted anonymity to speak candidly.
2026 was supposed to be boom times for the administration — the year when the GOP reaped the benefits of the tax cuts they legislated in the One Big Beautiful Bill, and executive orders the president signed last year. And it may still be. There is plenty of time for the polling to rebound and for the president to make his case that he needs Republicans to retain control of Congress to finish his expansive agenda.
Still, as February comes to a close, Trump finds himself on the back foot on many issues, retreating from policy pronouncements that he insisted were vital only weeks before.
Just since January, Trump has reversed course after threatening to seize Greenland from Denmark, and pulled thousands of ICE and Border Patrol agents out of Minneapolis after two fatal shootings sparked national outrage and eroded public support for the president’s handling of his signature issue. A major federal agency remains shut down, threatening Americans’ travel. And last week’s Supreme Court ruling overturning his sweeping tariff regime marked the biggest setback for his agenda to date.
It’s a far cry from a year ago, when he seemed almost unstoppable as he methodically followed an ambitious policy play-sheet scripted by aides over four years out of power, laying waste to the federal bureaucracy and demoralizing beleaguered Democrats with a barrage of executive actions aimed at undoing much of his predecessor’s work.
“We were 1,000 percent on offense a year ago,” the former official recalled. “We felt like we were firing on all cylinders. And early on, we didn’t have many points for scrutiny. Now, a year in, there is a record to kind of hang the president on. That makes this much more challenging.”
Even before the Court’s ruling struck at the cornerstone of his economic policy, Trump and aides had been eyeing the annual address toCongress as a major opportunity to emphasize accomplishments and, perhaps more importantly, redefine his agenda for the country with a larger focus on the affordability issues that seem certain to dominate this year’s election cycle.
“Last year was all about promise and potential. This year has to be about the current reality,” said Kevin Madden, a longtime GOP communications strategist in Washington and senior partner at Penta, a consulting firm. “I expect the President and his team know that this speech presents a moment of opportunity to really address the affordability angle. We know it was the driving issue of 2025, and we know it’s going to define 2026.”
That was the same message delivered by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio last week at a quiet meeting of the president’s closest aides plotting a course for the months ahead. According to two people familiar with the presentation, Fabrizio’s slide deck made clear that the economy was top of mind for most voters, and that Trump and Republicans would be wise to focus on efforts to cut taxes and lower prescription drug costs and a still developing plan to address housing affordability.
“There’s a lot of wins to talk about, and not just the stock market,” said a senior White House official, granted anonymity to speak about SOTU planning. “The pieces in the OBBB to help people were designed to take effect this year, ahead of the midterms, so people will feel the impact before they have to vote.”
But the president has, at times, struggled to deliver a clear, consistent message on these issues, grousing about how “affordability” is a phony issue constructed by Democrats, who voters punished in 2024 for not doing more to address rising consumer costs.
It’s all left Democrats – listless and adrift a year ago – increasingly confident about the political pendulum swinging back in their direction.
Neera Tanden, who served as staff secretary in President Joe Biden’s White House and now is president and CEO of the Center for American Progress, a left-leaning think tank, said that the situation is similar to 20 years ago, when the country was starting to turn against another second term president.
“People thought the Iraq war failed and they turned on George W. Bush,” Tanden said. “The two signature policies of Trump that he cares about more than anything are tariffs and immigration. One is costing working people a ton and they hate it. And immigration has gone completely off the rails. His problem is that what he believes in is a failure to the public.”
Some Republicans, with the midterms approaching and polls showing Democrats holding a five-point edge on the generic ballot, have started to complain more in public. Last week when the nation’s governors gathered in Washington, several Republican governors sounded frustrated with the White House and Congress, both of which their party controls.
North Dakota Gov. Kelly Armstrong acknowledged that Trump’s tariff regime has had an impact on his state’s oil and gas producers and its farmers. And Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt, who’s been critical of Trump’s messy immigration crackdown in Minnesota, was especially blunt during a POLITICO event where he expressed concern about the country’s direction.
“It feels like we’re a car racing towards a cliff and right now my party’s driving,” Stitt said, extending the metaphor further to say that the “Democratic Party’s in the passenger seat” and that the partisan rancor in Washington amount to both parties “fighting over control of the radio.”
Stitt, in his final year as governor, may feel freer to voice criticism in public. But for Republicans who are going to be on the November ballot, Trump’s 40 percent approval rating is likely to have an impact if things don’t change.
“He is currently at his lowest point in the second term,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster in Washington. “The single most important variable in midterm elections is the president’s job approval. When it’s above 50 percent, the party loses seats but not that many. When the president’s job approval is below, the average loss of seats is 32.”
from Politics, Policy, Political News Top Stories https://ift.tt/yqQ2Jbu
via IFTTT
No comments:
Post a Comment