The State of the Union offered President Donald Trump a chance to reframe the national conversation ahead of a midterm season which his party enters trailing in the polls.
Instead, the message to his party was clear: Full steam ahead.
Trump largely stuck to the script on trade, foreign policy and the economy, with his rhetoric mirroring the speeches he’s given across the country to sell his agenda to the American people. But it’s not clear that will meaningfully shift the Republican Party’s electoral fortunes amid polls that show flagging support for both Trump and the GOP — and Tuesday’s speech did little to show a fresh vision of what he wants the party to accomplish this year in these areas.
Trump’s speech did mark a shift on immigration, as Republicans warn that his aggressive deportation campaign could cost them their razor-thin congressional majorities. Unlike last year — when the president vowed to conduct the “largest deportation operation” in American history — he stayed hyperfocused on border security and his efforts to deport “illegal alien criminals.”
Here’s how he performed in a few key areas.
‘He didn’t sell it’ on trade
Trump tried to sell his trade agenda by talking about the deals with foreign leaders he has notched and the peace agreements he has leveraged tariffs to reach. He even teased that the money generated from the duties might even one day replace the income tax system.
But some allies say he still missed the mark on his tariff message, a significant problem because polls continue to show voters are skeptical of broad-based levies and fear they will raise prices.
“He didn’t sell it,” said one former Trump official, granted anonymity to discuss their candid reaction. “All old talking points that voters don’t believe. Nothing new to strengthen the argument.”
The person added that it “might be the best speech he’s ever delivered in that environment,” calling it a “masterful command of the theater that is the SOTU.”
“Just didn’t move the needle on the economy,” the person said. “That’s the rub.”
The president called the Supreme Court’s ruling on Friday striking down his sweeping emergency tariffs as “very unfortunate.” But he did not call out any of the justices who ruled against him — and even shook hands with three of them before taking the dais.
‘Secret words’ from Iran?
Trump made clear that America’s differences with Iran are significant, but he held off on announcing the launch of a military operation against the Islamist regime in Tehran.
"My preference is to solve this problem through diplomacy, but one thing is certain: I will never allow the world’s No. 1 sponsor of terror — which they are by far— to have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said.
The fact that Trump stopped short of a military move may briefly calm some of the jitters in the Middle East, including among Arab states nervous about the potential for a regional conflagration. Still, Trump could change his mind in a matter of hours. Plus, he did not say exactly what Tehran needs to do for him to disperse the massive U.S. “armada” he’s placed in the region.
In fact, Trump claimed that Iran refused to say it would not pursue a nuclear weapon. "We haven't heard those secret words: we will never have a nuclear weapon," he said.
But Tehran has repeatedly given such assurances. (Though many U.S. officials are skeptical of Iran’s promises.) Trump also warned about the dangers of Iran’s ballistic missile program.
Overall, Trump spent relatively little time discussing foreign affairs considering what a huge part of his agenda it has been. He appeared to be following advisers’ urging to emphasize his domestic agenda, especially affordability issues, ahead of the midterms.
‘We’re fixing what they broke’
Trump offered a relatively thorough accounting of economic policies that the GOP has put in place over the past year to boost Americans’ pocketbooks, from no tax on tips to so-called Trump accounts that will serve as investment vehicles for babies born in the next few years. He also announced a new initiative to give some lower-income, private-sector workers access to retirement accounts with annual matches from the federal government, and he rolled out new voluntary agreements with technology firms to attempt to ensure that they pay for the enormous new energy costs associated with data centers.
But he offered fewer forward-looking ideas to help bring down costs, suggesting his main strategy is honing his messaging rather than trying to pitch voters on new economic ideas.
He will need to sharpen that message as he travels the country delivering affordability speeches, said GOP strategist Doug Heye.
“It’s not about one speech. SOTU never moves the mark,” Heye said. “Does Trump and the Cabinet take — and maintain — the show on the road? Or, in three weeks, is all we remember of the speech is the Olympic hockey team and some yelling because we’ve moved on to new Trump-created outrages du jour?”
Trump’s main economic message seemed to be that the Biden administration made a mess he is cleaning up. “Don't know what [the] official central theme was, but I'd guess it was, ‘We're fixing what they broke,’” said Daniel Garza, founder of the LIBRE Initiative, a grassroots conservative group based in South Texas. But that message may not resonate with the majority of voters who say the cost of living in the U.S. is worse than they ever remember it being, according to a December POLITICO poll.
“This is Donald Trump’s economy and he can’t pass that hot potato back through a time machine,” said Democratic strategist Jared Leopold. “Trump is telling Americans not to believe their own eyes, ears and wallets. Instead of meeting people where they are, he’s coming off as completely out of touch with Americans’ economic realities.”
Trump reframes his immigration agenda
Trump used his speech to tout his success in securing the southern border and deporting “illegal alien criminals” — but avoided invoking his broad and aggressive mass deportations campaign that has sparked backlash.
He focused on guests to reinforce that message, including Dalilah Coleman, a 5 year old who was injured after being hit by an unauthorized immigrant driving an 18-wheeler. The mother of Lizbeth Medina, who was murdered in 2023 by an unauthorized immigrant, was also in the audience.
“Her heartbroken mother is in the gallery to remind everyone in this chamber exactly why we are deporting illegal alien criminals from our country at record numbers, and we’re getting them the hell out of here fast,” the president said.
GOP strategists and Republicans who have warned the president’s immigration agenda has gone too far thought Trump struck the right tone. The president only said the word “deporting” once, as some Republicans are concerned the party is at risk of losing crucial supporters, including Hispanic voters, this fall over immigration.
“As a Latino, and an immigrant, I can clearly say that it plays very well among those who came here legally,” said Charlie Gerow, a Republican strategist and former American Conservative Union vice chair. “It’s one reason Trump did so well among Latinos in 2024.”
For immigration hawks, there was plenty to love, but the president didn’t quite hit their mark. He notably didn’t say his administration was targeting the “worst of the worst” — a phrase immigration hawks and some MAGA supporters detest. And he had a standout moment when he sought to draw a contrast with Democrats, asking members of Congress to stand if they agreed that “the first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens.”
There was “a lot to love,” but “obviously missing was discussion of the deportation agenda,” said Mike Howell, president of the conservative Oversight Project.
“There’s only so much you can fit into a speech, but I wanted to hear a defense of ICE and more about the signature deportation campaign promise. Speeches are words, the promise will be measured in numbers of deportations,” he said.
Victoria Guida, Megan Messerly, Myah Ward, Nahal Toosi and Samuel Benson contributed to this report.
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