SAN FRANCISCO — Matt Mahan’s late foray into the race for California governor started with a Super Bowl ad, a rush of Silicon Valley support and speculation fanned by Mahan’s camp and others about tech titans underwriting a campaign to upend Democratic politics in the nation’s most populous state.
But seven weeks later, Mahan’s campaign is stalled.
The latest polling from POLITICO and its partners puts the San Jose mayor at 3 percent, almost exactly where he stood in other surveys before entering the race. He has qualified for one upcoming televised debate, but is polling below the threshold to make another. And while Mahan has raised more money than any candidate other than billionaire Tom Steyer, the more than $13.3 million that two major PACs supporting him have amassed is far less than the tens of millions some supporters had telegraphed, according to two prominent Democratic fundraisers in Silicon Valley, who were granted anonymity to describe private conversations.
A 43-year-old, centrist Democrat with an anti-establishment streak, Mahan may still have time to make a mark in a race that has no clear frontrunner, with the election nearly three months away. Viewed when he got into the race as a vehicle to power for the tech industry and a disruptive force in Sacramento, a cavalry of donors could still arrive to pull him into contention.
Mahan has been on a media blitz in recent days, traveling to New York to appear on “The Daily Show” with Jon Stewart, MS Now’s “11th Hour with Stephanie Ruhle” and “Morning Joe,” while touting his recent endorsement from Majority Democrats, a center-left group that has backed Democrats like Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger and Texas Senate hopeful James Talarico.
But vast resources are required to compete statewide in California, and nothing Mahan has done to date suggests he is finding enough traction in his home state.
"He completely overestimated his standing politically in the state of California as the sitting mayor of San Jose,” said Garry South, a veteran Democratic consultant who’s run several prior campaigns for governor and who previously advised Gov. Gavin Newsom. “He’s gone. He might as well drop out.”
At a minimum, it’s been a disappointing start for the ambitious mayor, who some supporters view as not only the future of California, but Democratic politics writ large. Within Mahan’s orbit of allies, supporters are working to tamp down donors’ anxiety about his polling. One fundraiser supportive of Mahan, who was granted anonymity to describe private conversations, said a few major donors have gotten cold feet in recent days, while a strategist backing Mahan, who was also granted anonymity, blamed “gossipy” tech insiders for fueling unrealistic fundraising expectations.
Now, even some in Silicon Valley are writing him off.
"Tech people talk a big game, you allow yourself to listen to it and get smitten,” one of the Silicon Valley fundraisers said. "Then, they’re slow to act and quick to change their opinions when polling comes back. All those guys are like, ‘Maybe I’ll sit this one out and allow myself to write a much smaller check.’”
Mahan, who has never run for statewide office, was always going to face an uphill climb in a race against Democrats better known to California voters, including Rep. Eric Swalwell, former Rep. Katie Porter and Steyer. His team points to polling that shows a plurality of likely voters remain undecided in the race, arguing they could be persuaded to back Mahan once they learn about his moderate, anti-establishment message.
“You have an electorate that isn’t enamored with the gaggle of politicians and the politics-as-usual solutions,” said Eric Jaye, Mahan’s top consultant. “Our theory of the case hasn’t changed at all.”
Jaye said Mahan hasn’t had enough time to build his statewide name recognition. The campaign is sitting on most of the $10.54 million Mahan has raised, he said, planning to target voters with ads closer to the June 2 primary. He said the campaign expects to be in a different position in the polls by mid-April.
He added, “We haven’t launched our communication yet.”
While Mahan’s campaign is holding back, the outside PACs supporting him — and who financed the Super Bowl ad — are pouring money into TV ads in the state’s major media markets outside of his base in the San Francisco Bay Area, including a $2.3 million buy this week to introduce him to voters in Los Angeles, San Diego and Sacramento.
“We have got to let that sink in,” said Matt Rodriguez, campaign manager for two committees backing Mahan. “Everyone just needs to keep calm and carry on, as that old phrase goes.”
But while nearly 30 percent of respondents in the Citrin-POLITICO poll last week said they hadn’t heard of the mayor, it’s not clear that California voters, if they knew more about Mahan, would like him any better. His favorability rating in that survey was upside down — 18 percent favorable to 22 percent unfavorable.
Newsom, the politician Mahan is angling to succeed, is popular in this heavily Democratic state, and the strategic choice Mahan made to build his political profile criticizing the governor may be catching up with him. Mahan pivoted soon after entering the race, saying Newsom is “focused on the right issues” after long criticizing him for everything from his handling of homelessness and crime to his online trolling of President Donald Trump.
Mahan’s critics, including progressive groups and labor unions, pounced when Mahan accused his rivals of being too fixated on Trump, with the mayor saying “the best resistance is delivering results” on solving California’s problems like homelessness and unaffordability. And while the mayor said he called Newsom and sent him text messages when he entered the race, Newsom never responded. One Newsom ally, who was granted anonymity to discuss private conversations, said the governor’s supporters have communicated to major donors how they feel about Mahan’s past criticisms.
Jim DeBoo, another Newsom ally and longtime political adviser, said the concern for Mahan is now less about meeting high expectations for his campaign than avoiding an embarrassing showing.
"Because he jumped in with so much fanfare, if he ends as the fourth or fifth Democrat, it could do long-term damage to his career,” DeBoo said.
Mahan is not without supporters, many of them centrist Democrats drawn to his moderate, pro-growth ideology. He’s tapped into a subculture of influencers intrigued by his plain-spoken promises to remove wasteful state spending, slash barriers to new housing and force homeless people to accept shelter.
Jay Cheng, a longtime San Francisco operative, helped organize three fundraisers for Mahan in the city in recent weeks, including gatherings for Asian American business owners, young venture capitalists and the city’s traditional donor class of real estate and corporate titans. He said Mahan’s pragmatic tone is hitting a chord with powerbrokers eager for a Democrat who’s willing to challenge Sacramento’s establishment.
"It was like the Second Coming, I’m serious,” Cheng said, describing the scene as Mahan spoke at a gathering hosted by Garry Tan, CEO of the startup incubator Y Combinator and a prolific local donor. "After he spoke, it was like he got swarmed, literally swarmed by people as he was leaving the stage.”
But the challenge is whether Manan can reach enough moderate-leaning voters before the primary. He will appear on the ballot alongside better-known rivals: Steyer, a former presidential candidate who’s spent nearly $90 million of his own wealth; Swalwell, a cable news star who also ran for president; and Porter, a liberal firebrand known for her viral whiteboard takedowns of corporate CEOs.
Between Swalwell, Steyer and Porter, no clear frontrunner has emerged, though Swalwell and Steyer have recently locked up key labor endorsements. But Mahan is nowhere near them — and nothing he has done so far has moved the needle enough for his campaign.
"For him, and the tech bros that are supporting him,” said Lorena Gonzalez, head of the powerful California Labor Federation, “they don’t understand voters and they don’t understand the moment.”
Christine Mui contributed to this report.
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