The Middle East war has depleted a key part of the United States’ missile defense system in the region. To rebuild, the U.S. needs to go through China.
In just over a month of war, Iran has targeted several U.S. radar units spread across the region, cutting-edge defensive weapons that are used to detect and shoot down incoming missiles and drones. Military experts believe many have been damaged, if not destroyed. A key component of those interceptors is gallium, a critical mineral that is also used in other high-tech products like semiconductors.
China has a near total monopoly over the processing of gallium. And it has already proven willing to limit access. Increased U.S. demand for the metal to rebuild its interceptors — a process that will take years — only strengthens Beijing’s hand in the upcoming summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
“Broadly does it make us more vulnerable? Yes, I think so,” said Mikhail Zeldovich, an investor focused on critical minerals. “I don’t think there’s any doubt there.”
Already, prices for gallium have increased by 32 percent in the past month, after months of lower prices following an Oct. 30 agreement between the U.S. and China. The negotiations were sparked in part by China’s near total control over the processing of critical minerals, including gallium, leverage the country used to cut off supply and force the U.S. to the negotiating table.
If the demand for critical minerals increases as the U.S. attempts to restock its weapons cache, it would only strengthen China’s hand.
“The minute you look like a demander and there's things you want, then this relationship is at that point where the other side, then, is smelling leverage, right?” said Wendy Cutler, a former USTR negotiator. “And so [Beijing] can up their demands.”
The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
In addition to a range of consumer products, including semiconductors, electric vehicles, wind power generators and smartphone and laptop chargers, critical minerals are a key component of U.S. weapons systems and other defense technologies. Not only do interceptors rely on gallium for accurate threat detection, other heavy rare earth metals like terbium and dysprosium are key components in the missile targeting. China controls more than 90 percent of heavy rare earth metal processing.
“Disrupting those supply chains can create new bottlenecks in the defense industry supply chains, which we already have enough challenges in meeting demand within our defense industry,” said Brian Hart, is the deputy director and fellow of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “So adding on critical mineral bottlenecks there just complicates things a lot.”
As the U.S. regroups during the two-week ceasefire with Iran the president announced Thursday night, the military will be able to assess the damage to its weapons cache and what it will take to rebuild them.
In the early days of the war, Iran launched strikes at seven U.S. military sites, aiming at communications and radar systems, according to The New York Times. Weakening those systems requires the U.S. and its allies to shoot more missiles to take out an incoming threat, at times using 10 or 11 interceptors to take down one missile, rapidly depleting U.S. supplies, according to an analysis by the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines.
The conflict in Iran adds further urgency to the federal government’s efforts to build alternative supply chains for critical minerals independent of China.
In just the past year, the U.S. trade representative has set out to negotiate a plurilateral critical minerals trade agreement with multiple countries, the administration requested $1.1 billion for a critical minerals office in the Department of Energy and it has directed the State Department to work with allies to help secure the critical minerals supply chain.
Last July, the Pentagon became the largest shareholder in MP Materials, which owns the only operational rare earth mine in the country, buying $400 million in preferred stock.
In October, the White House announced a critical minerals deal with Australia, in which both countries plan to spend $3 billion on critical minerals projects, including a Defense Department investment in a gallium refinery in Western Australia that will produce 100 metric tons per year.
“We are making large strides in the United States in regards to domestic self sufficiency for rare earths,” U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said at an event hosted by the Hudson Institute, a conservative-leaning D.C. think tank, on Tuesday. “We’re working with partners on this, talking about stockpiling, doing deals, not just mining facilities, but processing, refining, manufacturing and talking about pricing mechanisms to make sure it would be economically sustainable.”
Minerals experts say gallium is one of the most promising areas for the U.S. to increase its supply. Not only is the market small, the metal is often a waste product from the refining of other metals, like aluminum and zinc. That means a company with the ability to capture gallium in its smelting process could help increase the global supply.
But those efforts take time, much longer than it takes for the U.S. to deplete its weapons supplies. Alcoa, the Australian company likely to receive funding in the Defense Department’s gallium effort, declined to comment for this article, saying it does not yet participate in the gallium supply chain.
“In the medium to short term, I think we're still going to be in a position where China can leverage this dominance in some of these critical minerals,” said Hart. “And I think that Beijing has been successful in doing that. That was clearly their biggest bargaining chip in bringing the Trump administration to the negotiating table and getting to the Busan agreement last year.”
That trade truce has remained relatively stable over the past five months, as the Chinese have followed through on their promise to loosen export controls on critical minerals.
But any efforts to alter that status quo could instantly swing the two countries back into a series of trade escalations that carried significant consequences for the U.S. economy — at one point erecting what was essentially an embargo between the two countries.
It remains to be seen whether China will seek to use any new leverage from the Middle East War to its advantage. Ahead of Trump’s visit to the country in mid-May, Greer said the relationship between the two countries is stable. The Chinese, who seek predictability from Trump, may not want to disturb that balance.
“I don't see a reason for them to upset the apple cart,” said Derek Scissors, the chief economist for the China Beige Book, which tracks the Chinese economy. “Things are going fine. We're alienating our allies, which is like a high priority for China internationally. So why mess with it for a small amount of leverage?”
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