When the White House’s top energy adviser landed in Venezuela late last month, he was ushered into a terminal and asked to sign a guest book. On the wall hung a portrait of the nation’s former dictator, Nicolás Maduro, who drove most U.S. oil companies out of the country until he was deposed by President Donald Trump in a military operation in January.
Under the Maduro portrait’s watchful eyes, National Energy Dominance Council Executive Director Jarrod Agen signed the book with Trump’s energy catchphrase: “Drill Baby Drill.”
The experience, which Agen recounted on this week’s episode of the POLITICO Energy podcast days after returning from Caracas, encapsulates how much has shifted in the South American nation over the last four months — and the uncertainty that remains.
Agen and other Trump administration officials have shuttled back and forth from Caracas to help facilitate deals for U.S. energy and mining companies to invest in Venezuela, and in doing so have forged closer ties with interim President Delcy Rodríguez and her administration, largely hold-overs from Maduro’s regime. That engagement has picked up in recent weeks, especially as Trump pushes Venezuelan crude as an alternative to the supplies disrupted because of the U.S.-Israel war in Iran.
But the coziness with Rodríguez has raised anxiety among some potential investors and Venezuelans abroad that the Trump administration has put off its stated goal of pushing the country toward democratic elections. Rodríguez told reporters during Agen’s visit that elections would be held “some time.”
Agen, like other White House officials, insisted that the Trump administration still wants to see democracy in Venezuela, but it believes the country first needs a stable economic foundation.
“We’re in the stability phase,” Agen said. “And that’s really about getting the energy deals flowing and getting funds in there for the everyday activities of Venezuela.”
Agen had lunch with Rodríguez, who he said committed to moving at “‘Trump speed’” to get oil deals finalized and investment flowing in. But he said he didn’t raise the prospect of a democratic transition with her.
“We’ve indicated all along that ultimately there would have to be elections, and I think everyone understands that,” Agen said. “We didn’t get into that in my conversations because it was really more about the energy deals and the progress there and what are some of the more immediate needs.”
Agen said private sector interest in investing in Venezuela has picked up considerably since his last visit in early March, which came just weeks after the Treasury Department authorized companies to negotiate deals there after years of crushing sanctions. On the most recent trip, Agen helped three independent U.S. oil producers ink non-binding agreements that could see them invest in Venezuela for the first time in the coming years.
Now, those companies and other major producers who have made broad pledges to increase production will need to negotiate the details of their contracts with state-run Petróleos de Venezuela, something Agen said he pressed Rodríguez to expedite.
“We had a candid dialogue about doing that and she was very receptive to that, as was her team, and they’re trying to move quickly on that,” Agen said.
Hunt Oil, one of the companies that signed an initial, non-binding agreement on the trip with Agen, declined to comment. Another company, HKN Energy, did not reply to questions.
Crossover Energy said it signed its initial agreement in Venezuela in an effort to "help mitigate environmental damage while generating the revenue and power necessary for national recovery," company CEO Eric McCrady said.
"While we are closely monitoring the political landscape, we believe the most effective way to support the country’s transition is to do what we do best: build a sustainable business that creates local jobs and revitalizes essential infrastructure," McCrady said.
Oil sector officials, attorneys and lobbyists say they are seeing tremendous interest in investing in Venezuela — not only to rebuild its dilapidated oil sector, but to restore its electric grid and other basic infrastructure needed to extract its resources.
Esteban Elias, a Miami-based partner at Leech Tishman who is advising clients on potential deals in Venezuela, said companies have been “waiting for this for years.”
“If the conditions are right, they feel like they can do a lot there because nothing was really done in the last 15 to 20 years,” Elias said.
He noted that Maduro’s influence over Venezuelan governance isn’t likely to fade quickly, even with elections. But in the meantime, he said, the U.S. is doing the right thing by laying the groundwork for economic growth.
“I think this has to be a slow transition,” Elias said. ”But at the same time, you can create the environment and the business conditions for companies to start doing business.”
In addition to the trips organized by the Trump administration, private sector investors have organized visits to Venezuela to examine the conditions and assess opportunities. Rep. Pete Sessions (R-Texas), who has faced scrutiny in recent years for his close ties to Venezuelan officials, also organized a workshop with companies in late March to discuss the latest legal and political developments.
But for some companies, there is still a general uneasiness about investing when the country’s political future remains uncertain.
“They’re still a little hesitant,” said Jim Reardon, a partner at the law firm Nelson Mullins in Houston. “This has happened in other countries, where the oil and gas industry has gone in and finalized agreements with one government, which then, a few years later, is viewed as the illegitimate government, and that those concessions are not valid anymore.”
Reardon said the industry is looking for certainty that there will be an election and on how the new government will handle past claims.
Over the last two decades, the Venezuelan government, which included Rodríguez, expropriated the assets of foreign oil companies and drove nearly all of them out of the country. Rodríguez has pushed through some reforms to Venezuela’s oil and mining laws since Maduro’s ouster, but companies and U.S. officials have said they don’t go far enough.
Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin America Energy Program at Rice University’s Center for Energy Studies, said the history of expropriation will weigh on companies as they consider committing large amounts of capital in Venezuela under the current government.
“The history of Venezuela's private investment in the oil sector is, of course, full of government reneging on contracts, even during much better times, but dramatically under the Chavez and Maduro regime,” he said.
Monaldi said the “vast majority” of Venezuelans want to see new free and fair elections, creating a “situation of uncertainty for any major long-term investment.”
“I think that it’s almost impossible to bring in the $100 billion that Venezuela needs to get in the next 10 years [for its oil sector] without political transition, a legitimate government and a functional democracy,” he said.
Venezuela’s opposition leader, María Corina Machado, made an impassioned address at a major oil industry conference in Houston in March laying out her plan to overhaul the country’s oil sector. Venezuela could quintuple its oil production, but only after a transition to democracy, Machado said, receiving a standing ovation from the gathered oil executives.
Evanan Romero, a former PDVSA executive and Houston-based oil consultant who informally advises Machado, said the longer it takes to elect a democratic government, the longer it will take to recover production. Romero said Rodríguez has appointed leaders at PDVSA who lack the experience needed to negotiate complex oil deals.
“Venezuela had 80 years of experience in regulatory [capacity] inside the government ministry. Those were wiped out,” Romero said. “How come you’re going to get some young kids, fresh out of college, directing or telling these international oil companies what they should do?”
Romero, who was detained for four days when he returned to Venezuela on business in February, said Rodríguez is “an expert at deceiving people” and warned she is appeasing the Trump administration on oil to cement her own power.
Venezuela’s mission to the UN, as well as a lawyer retained by Rodríguez to represent her in some matters in the U.S., did not respond to a request for comment.
To be sure, international oil companies have plenty of experience operating under authoritarian regimes, from Chile under Pinochet to Russia today, noted Shon Hiatt, director of the Zage Business of Energy Initiative at the USC Marshall School of Business.
Hiatt said he does not see much incentive for the Trump administration to push Venezuela to hold elections in the coming years, now that it has a pliant regime in Caracas and oil investment appearing to flow in.
“I think that’s going to be dependent upon the Venezuelan people themselves to push for the elections, because it doesn’t seem to be in the interest of the Trump administration,” Hiatt said.
Some involved in Venezuela’s early reconstruction efforts have praised the U.S.’ staged approach, saying that moving too quickly to elections could undermine the economic growth needed to stabilize a new government.
“If you make elections before the economy improves, then the demands on the new leader will be so high that they won’t be able to satisfy them,” said Alejandro Sucre, a Caracas-based investor who is pitching a fund backing oil and mining projects in Venezuela.
Sucre, who also heads the foreign policy observatory at the free-market think tank CEDICE Libertad, said he supports elections before the Trump administration leaves office, but warned that trying to hold them now will only lead to disputes and unrest.
“We’ll be back to zero — back to no investment in Venezuela,” he said. “As Venezuelans, we don’t want the political dysfunctionalities to disrupt this opportunity.”
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